Why reports of a surge in retail theft may be overblown

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• Geoff Bennett:

  Most Americans think there's more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago, according to a recent Gallup poll.

  That's despite clear data showing violent crime has actually dropped sharply in 2023. So, why the misperception?

  Economics correspondent Paul Solman takes a deep dive into one type of crime that may be getting outsized attention.

• Paul Solman:

  OK, a question for you: Is retail theft running rampant in America these days?

• Jericka Duncan, CBS News:

  Flash mob robberies across Los Angeles.

• Man:

  Just the latest in retail theft crime ring.

• Woman:

  Retailers say this type of crime is reaching unprecedented levels.

• Jim Cooper, Sacramento County, California, Sheriff:

  It is up massive.

• Paul Solman:

  Sheriff Jim Cooper of Sacramento county, California, has his answer.

• Jim Cooper:

  It's not even the drip, drip, drip. It is the faucets full on, where these folks go in daily and steal merchandise from stores.

• Paul Solman:

  Last month, Cooper took to social media to blast big box retailers for ignoring shoplifting and California's laws for being too soft on retail crime.

  To prove his point, Cooper sent dozens of detectives on a weeklong crackdown, netting 285 arrests, recovering tens of thousands of dollars in stolen merchandise.

• Jim Cooper:

  We have people going just from store to store to store. So it's very frustrating on law enforcement's part and really the public. The public's tired of it.

• Paul Solman:

  But is it really? Well, we reached out to our public, online.

• Victoria, West Virginia:

  I have a part-time job at the local quilt and sewing shop, and we are seeing an increase in theft.

• Paul Solman:

  Victoria in Athens, West Virginia, says yes, Carlton in Kent, Ohio, no.

• Carlton, Ohio:

  I think all the coverage reinforces an idea in people's head that it's a bigger problem than maybe it really is.

• Paul Solman:

  So which is it?

• Jeff Asher, AH Datalytics:

  All of the available evidence suggests that not inherently that retail theft is going down, but that we don't have evidence to support that there's a rise, especially a surge, in retail theft.

• Paul Solman:

  One problem, says crime researcher Jeff Asher, is that news and social media overdramatize the issue.

• Jeff Asher:

  These problems are getting more press, more discussion. I think some of that might be just a focus on a crime with poor data. If you have a viral video, you have a large-scale theft or a theft that turns into a violent incident, it gets hundreds of thousands or millions of clicks, millions of views.

• Paul Solman:

  But it's also retailers themselves blaring the alarm and locking aisles upon aisles of items behind Plexiglas. And there's the phrase were now hearing quite often, organized retail crime, troupes of thieves swiping merchandise, and reselling it.

  Earlier this year, Target cited theft to explain closing nine stores nationwide. But multiple analyses showed less crime at Target locations that closed, compared to ones nearby that stayed open. Target didn't respond to our request for comment.

  And Jeff Asher points to a report from the Council on Criminal Justice, which showed, in most cities that kept good track of the data, retail theft is actually lower this year than before the pandemic.

  So why the disconnect? Underreporting, perhaps, but also stores or cities with outsized increases may be getting outsized attention.

  Are you suspicious of the narrative that retail theft has increased significantly?

• Neil Saunders, GlobalData Retail:

  I'm not suspicious of it. I just wish that there were some very solid numbers to back it up.

• Paul Solman:

  Neil Saunders is a retail analyst with GlobalData.

• Neil Saunders:

  I think one of the reasons retailers mention theft so much is that it provides a narrative for things that are happening elsewhere in the financials.

  So we have had a lot of retailers this year, for example, saying, well, our profitability is slightly down, our margins are slightly down. One of the reasons for that is because rates of theft have increased.

• Paul Solman:

  Saunders says companies rarely give very detailed data on how much inventory they have lost, what's known as shrink. While shrink includes theft by customers and employees, it also includes supply that may have been lost in transit or left in a warehouse somewhere.

  And, yes, data from the National Retail Federation, the industry's main lobbying group, shows shrink up in 2022, but barely, and still in line with 2019 and 2020. Earlier this month, the federation actually had to retract an estimate that organized retail crime accounted for nearly half of all shrink in 2021. According to one analysis, it was actually more like 5 percent.

  In a statement to the "NewsHour," the federation acknowledged the — quote — "lack of conclusive data on the scale of retail theft," but countered that the industry is spending billions to increase security, however inconvenient to shoppers and damaging to sales.

• Quote:

  "It defies logic to suggest that all this money and energy is being invested to attack an imaginary problem or to serve a convenient narrative" — unquote.

  And, indeed, workers at three Macy's stores outside Seattle, at least, agree. Hundreds went on strike over Black Friday weekend, saying the company wasn't doing enough to protect them from thieves.

  Union worker Azia Domingo.

• AZIA DOMINGO, Macy’s Employee:

  They're coming in stealing. We don't know if there's a weapon. We don't know what's going to happen. And it's that fear right there that we don't feel like we have the tools to be able to safely take care of ourselves, to safely take care of our customers.

• Paul Solman:

  Macy's response, it — quote — "prioritizes the safety of our colleagues" — unquote.

  And it says it is negotiating the issue with the union.

• Jim Cooper:

  Retail theft is a big issue right now.

• Paul Solman:

  And in Sacramento, Sheriff Jim Cooper insists the problem is getting worse, even though data from California's Department of Justice shows shoplifting in the county last year was below pre-COVID levels and way below a decade ago.

• Jim Cooper:

  Having been this job for 31 years, DOJ's data is inaccurate. Number one, a lot of these crimes don't get reported. The public's not reporting crimes. These big box retailers aren't reporting crimes.

  So, if no ones filing on it, you have no idea what the issues are. And that's really what it comes down to. It's not down. It hasn't been down.

• Paul Solman:

  For what it's worth, our public's response to, do you feel retail theft is a significant issue in your area, more than 60 percent said no. But that still left a lot of yeses.

  Sure, our responses are just so-called anecdata, but their ambiguity does jibe with retail analyst Neil Saunders' overall assessment.

• Neil Saunders:

  I think it's probably fair to say there is more theft than there used to be. The big question which we can't answer is, exactly how much more is there and how much of a problem is it?

  I think those are the very big questions that remain open. And we don't have a clear view on those things.

• Paul Solman:

  But one thing does seem clear. Viral video views are not a reliable answer to the question.

  For the "PBS NewsHour," Paul Solman.