Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on what to expect from voters on Super Tuesday

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• Amna Nawaz:

  On this Super Tuesday eve, it's a perfect time for some analysis from our Politics Monday team. That is Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR, who joins us from Raleigh, North Carolina.

  And it's great to see you both. Thanks, as always.

  So, Tam, let's start with you. You're there in North Carolina. Voters there will vote tomorrow.

  You heard from some Republican voters in Lisa's piece there, but what are you hearing from Democratic voters on the ground about what are the issues that are animating them tomorrow?

• Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

  It's really quite interesting. I was at an early voting location in the area in and around Charlotte.

  And I initially would ask voters coming out of their polling place, what issue are you most passionate about? What is driving you? Didn't ask them anything else before that, really was just trying to understand. And the vast majority of the Democratic voters I spoke to said that abortion and reproductive rights are their very top issue.

  And that reflects the view of Democrats in the state and also the view of the Biden campaign that this is such a hot issue, so front of mind for voters, Democratic voters especially here in North Carolina because of some changes and some restrictions that have been added in the past year, that they believe that puts this state into play.

  I spoke with the state's Democratic governor today, and he is insistent that, even though no Democratic presidential candidate has won this state since 2008, and it was a narrow margin then, that this state could be in play this time.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Tam, briefly, and to that point, the narrow — the margins can be narrow. Have you seen any sign of any uncommitted voters in North Carolina similar to the ones we saw in Michigan?

• Tamara Keith:

  Not in terms of a protest vote related to Gaza.

  Spoke to a bunch of voters early voting and only one of them even brought up the issue of Gaza. Certainly, that doesn't mean that I was speaking to a representative sample of voters, but certainly did speak to a lot of voters who are not thrilled about their general election — their very likely general election choices, voters, Democratic voters who are concerned about President Biden, but who are saying, well, you know, better than the alternative.

• Amna Nawaz:

  So, Amy, it is the single biggest primary contest day.

  On the Republican side, here is a look at the latest delegate count, with the last two remaining candidates there. You see 244 for Mr. Trump, 43 now for former Ambassador Nikki Haley. Look, Haley's team has made a big push, right? They just launched a seven-figure ad deal, TV ad deal.

  She won her first primary in D.C., got key endorsements from both Lisa Murkowski and from Susan Collins, two key Republican senators there. Could any of that, all of that in some way move the needle for her tomorrow?

• Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

  No.

  (Laughter)

• Amy Walter:

  Anyway — no, look, the math is just so, so very hard, not just because these are states where Donald Trump is polling well, but because of how the rules work, that even if she were able to get 25 or 30 percent of the vote, she's not going to get, in some cases, any delegates or the same number of delegates that you could get on the Democratic side.

  It's just how this works. So, sort of back-of-the-envelope projections right now, if things go as the way that polling suggests they are, by the end of Super Tuesday, Donald Trump is basically 75 percent of the way there in terms of the number of delegates that he needs.

  (Crosstalk)

• Amna Nawaz:

  He needs to get to 1,215.

• Amy Walter:

  He needs to get to 1,215. He would be about 75 percent of the way there after Super Tuesday.

• Amna Nawaz:

  OK.

• Amy Walter:

  I think the one thing that we do have to appreciate, there's a lot of attention Nikki Haley, and understandably so, because there's still officially a contest.

  But I think it's important to appreciate too that Donald Trump got to this place where he is rolling up these kind of margins and can wrap up the nomination this quickly. I went back and looked where the polls were sitting in April of 2023 or at this point in 2023. Less than half of Republicans said they wanted to see him as their nominee.

  And here we are, as I said, so close to him wrapping this thing up. It is quite an important thing to appreciate, not just what the challenger of Donald Trump is doing, but the fact that he was able to come from such a deficit to where he is now.

• Amna Nawaz:

  To be clear, the mathematical path for Haley to 1,215 likely closed after tomorrow.

  (Crosstalk)

• Amy Walter:

  Yes.

• Amna Nawaz:

  The math is what it is.

  Well, Tam, let's talk about something else big that's happening later this week, because, of course, the State of the Union address is on Thursday. President Biden will be delivering that. And he's got a strong legislative record to talk about, objectively a strong economy to be talking about, headwinds, as you mentioned, on the Israel-Hamas war front, Ukraine aid, immigration, for sure, low enthusiasm.

  But how do you think the White House is getting ready for this, and how high are the stakes for this particular State of the Union?

• Tamara Keith:

  Well, this State of the Union is essentially the first big speech of the general election.

  After what happens on Super Tuesday, it's going to be very clear to many more Americans than before that this is going to be a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. It's a rematch a lot of people don't necessarily want. It's a rematch that even many Democratic voters are concerned about.

  And so the stakes are quite high for this speech because the audience is always so big for a State of the Union and because we always talk so much about a State of the Union. It's like a — it's a news cycle. It's a big one, and especially because, at the last State of the Union, President Biden got into this back-and-forth with Republicans in the chamber.

  And he really, like, jousted with them and came out feeling like a winner. And it changed the dynamic of Democrats, establishment Democrats, who had been questioning, does he have the vitality to run for reelection? After that, those concerns were really quieted for many months.

  Now they're back. And so heading once again into this State of the Union after the special counsel report drew attention to the president's age and sort of rekindled those concerns, once again, voters and also more establishment Democrats and others are going to be looking at this and saying, does he have the fight?

  And I spoke to a number of speechwriters and others who say, more than the words that he says, it's about whether he shows that he is fighting for the American people.

• Amy Walter:

  Yes.

  (Crosstalk)

• Amna Nawaz:

  Amy, is this a chance, though, to quiet some of those concerns?

• Amy Walter:

  Well, I think that is correct, and also the blueprint for going forward and the contrast. He obviously — this is an official speech. This is not a campaign speech, but to lay out what the goals would be, not just for the next year, but what really is at stake in the November election in terms of the differences between the path that President Biden would like to go and the path that Republicans would like to go.

  Obviously, we're also talking about a moment in time where it's pretty clear that Congress itself has ceased functioning, doing anything. So, if you're thinking about, as a president, well, what can I talk about, what will happen in the next year, very little of it is actually going to come through this body that has become paralyzed, so paralyzed.

  And so I will be very curious to see if he's drawing that contrast as well between what's happening in Congress or not happening in Congress and what he would like to see get done.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Amy, before we go, speaking of things happening in Congress, the battle for who will replace Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is already taking shape, when he steps down from leadership later this year.

  We know the minority whip, John Thune, of South Dakota has thrown his hat into the ring. Senator John Cornyn of Texas has said he will pursue that leadership role. It's one of the most consequential battles on Capitol Hill.

• Amy Walter:

  Yes.

• Amna Nawaz:

  How are you looking at that?

• Amy Walter:

  Well, the hardest piece in handicapping this race vs., say, the speaker's race is that the speaker's race is public. You see who's casting their ballot. You do not see that in the race for leader.

  This is a secret ballot. So people can talk, people can make promises out loud, but you will never know who they actually voted for. So the influence that, say, a Donald Trump could have or other people could have will be significant.

  I think the biggest question beyond that of what — people saying what they actually do, is who the president will be, because, remember, this is an election that will take place after the election, what the makeup of the Senate will be, and what those folks would like to see that leader do going forward.

  That is probably going to tell us more than what they talk about today as they're campaigning.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Tam, we have only got about 15 seconds left. Quick thoughts on this?

• Tamara Keith:

  Yes, well, the big question that I have is that the Johns, as they have been referred to, have been loyal lieutenants to Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

  So a question is, will Republicans who have been moving away from Mitch McConnell and towards Donald Trump want a leader who is closer to McConnell, or are they going to want to completely shake things up? Could the dynamic be upended from anything we're expecting?

• Amna Nawaz:

  We will wait and see.

  Tamara Keith and Amy Walter, great to see you both. Thank you so much.

• Amy Walter:

  You're welcome.

• Tamara Keith:

  Thank you.