Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on political benefits and drawbacks of Biden’s Israel support

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• Geoff Bennett:

  For the political stakes of South Carolina, Michigan and beyond, we turn to our Politics Monday team. That's Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

  So, lots to discuss. I'm very glad you both are here.

  Let's start with this protest vote against President Biden in Michigan. The organizers say it's not an anti-Biden effort. They say it's a protest vote on humanitarian grounds. How do you see this playing out politically?

• Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

  This is going to be very interesting as we go forward, because in Michigan we know that this group in particular is aiming to get at least 10,000 people to vote uncommitted.

  And 10,000, by the way, is the margin by which Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016, in what was a very big surprise on election night. So it is both showing their displeasure with what is happening in Gaza, but also saying, do not ignore us or our concerns, and don't take us for granted.

  In fact, when I was talking to some folks over the weekend in Michigan, they said, a lot of what's happening in Michigan with this frustration has been building for a lot longer than just the time of the war in Gaza, that — the sense that these communities have been taken for granted by Democrats, they aren't doing the sort of caring and watering and feeding of them that they should do.

  And it is also about the fact that in these states, whether it is — I know we're going to talk about South Carolina a minute — whether it's losing voters to, in South Carolina, those who didn't vote for Trump, but voted for Haley, or getting these uncommitted voters, these are the kinds of margins that can determine whether you win or lose.

  And it is for Biden a group of voters that nationally are worrisome in terms of keeping into his coalition, particularly voters of color and younger voters.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Tam, how worried is the Biden campaign about this? I mean, what are they telling you?

• Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

  They're saying they're going to keep fighting for these voters, that they are not going to give up on their votes.

  And they also do point to numbers that say that 10,000 is really unambitious. It is highly likely that more than 10,000 people will vote uncommitted, because go back cycle after cycle after cycle, and way more than 10,000, something like 20,000 people have voted uncommitted going back years and years and years.

  However, the president does have a problem. The White House and the Biden campaign acknowledge that there's a group of voters, a significant group of voters that is really upset. And the president is in a difficult position because he has made a calculation based on global alliances and history and his experience and all of these other things related to Israel.

  He held Netanyahu close initially. Literally, I watched him hug him on the tarmac in Tel Aviv right after October 7. And that worked very well for President Biden with Jewish voters, who are also a very important constituency. And also Biden believed it was the right move politically, hug him close in public, privately push for better policy outcomes.

  Well, President Biden really badly wants a cease-fire or — they won't use that term, but a significant pause. They want the hostages back. They need this situation to move to a better place for humanitarian reasons, for policy reasons, but also for political reasons, because it is a big, gaping sore for President Biden with key voters, younger voters and voters of color, and particularly Muslim American voters.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Let's talk about South Carolina, because Nikki Haley finished 20 points behind Donald Trump. As we saw in the piece, she's still vowing to stay in the race.

  Her campaign says she raised $1 million the day after the loss, but she, as we all know, lost the financial backing of that super PAC that's backed by the Koch brothers, that powerful donor network. What is her endgame? What's her strategy moving forward?

• Amy Walter:

  I know.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Just amass as many delegates and see what happens?

• Amy Walter:

  Yes, that seems to be part of it.

  And, also, when you talk to folks who are either involved or watching from the periphery, there is a sense that she's just enjoying herself, enjoying this moment. She is getting national attention. To me, the biggest question going forward is whether she, at the end, will endorse Donald Trump, whether what we're seeing right now is actually a movement to take away a constituency from Donald Trump.

  If she's going to say, I'm here to tell these voters, the ones who showed up for me in November, do not go and rally behind Donald Trump, that would be incredibly significant. What we also know, much like we do in Michigan, is the kinds of people who are showing up for Nikki Haley are the kinds of voters that Republicans have been bleeding in the era of Trump, pretty significantly, white college-educated suburban voters.

  Now, we don't know that all of these voters who voted for Nikki Haley were ever thinking about voting for Trump. Maybe they voted for Biden last time around. But, again, that's why Michigan and South Carolina are really fascinating, because they both highlight the challenges that these two men have in what we know will be a very, very close contest in the fall of keeping every member of their coalition their team.

  They can't afford for them to defect, or stay home, or vote third party.

• Geoff Bennett:

  And, Tam, on that point, going back and looking at my notes from this election cycle, 49 percent of Republican caucus-goers didn't support Donald Trump in Iowa, 45 percent of New Hampshire Republican primary voters didn't vote for him, and then you have 40 percent of Republican voters in South Carolina who supported Nikki Haley.

  What does that say about Donald Trump's weaknesses as a candidate?

• Tamara Keith:

  Well, Nikki Haley would tell you it says a lot about Donald Trump's weaknesses as a candidate.

  And those weaknesses are real and they are there. But the issue for Republican voters and for the Republican primary is, there isn't an alternative that is more popular than former President Trump. So, Nikki Haley is not going to win the primary. It's just not going to happen.

  And, yes, there are very real concerns among Republicans about what happens in the general election. It's a big part of Nikki Haley's stump speech that Biden polls better against Trump than he does against her. But the reality is that, once former President Trump really is the nominee, there will be a lot of consolidation.

  Those 40 percent, some large share of them are Republican voters who are going to return home. Some share of them are not. Some of them are Democrats voting in open primaries. And some of them are never-Trump Republicans who are trying to find a home. And it's not clear whether the Biden campaign, which has their eyes on them, will be able to persuade them to vote for him, or whether they will stay home or vote for Mike Pence or Mickey Mouse.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Well, in the meantime, Donald Trump wants a leadership change at the Republican National Committee in an effort to install loyalists, including potentially his daughter-in-law.

  Ronna McDaniel, the current chair, says she's stepping down effective March 8. This will be after a Super Tuesday. What's the significance of this, Amy?

• Amy Walter:

  We have been talking about this now for so long, but the party is Donald Trump and Donald Trump is the party, and this is just the latest example of this.

  It's not just that it is his daughter-in-law taking over, but it's loyalists with his campaign who will also be installed over at the RNC. We're seeing at the state party level loyalists to Donald Trump who are running the party. In some cases, there's friction between those loyalists and others in the party that has led to complete paralysis in the state — in a like Michigan for example.

  But we also, I think, can look at this as a reality check to what a Trump 2.0 presidency would look like, which is, whether it is at the RNC or it will be in government positions or at the White House, only those who are the most loyal to Donald Trump will get those positions. Remember, back in 2016 and when he was in the White House in 2017, he kind of was working with the establishment.

  It's also true that the establishment now is more Trumpy than ever when you look at what Congress looks like. The folks who have come in since Trump's election in 2017 look a lot more like him than those — quote, unquote — "traditional Republicans" who were around before he was elected.

• Geoff Bennett:

  And McDaniel put out a statement, part of which reads: "The RNC has historically undergone change once we have a nominee, and it has always been my intention to honor that tradition."

  Donald Trump is trying to make these changes before he is the nominee.

• Tamara Keith:

  Well, yes, but he also has already stacked the deck in a way that it's basically inevitable that he will be the nominee.

  He will go into California, he will go into Michigan, a bunch of these states that are coming up, and he will get basically all the delegates, if not all of the delegates, and the math is just completely and totally in his favor, in part because of his sway over various state parties.

• Geoff Bennett:

  And it was designed that way.

• Tamara Keith:

  And it was by design.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Yes.

  Tamara Keith and Amy Walter, thanks so much.

• Tamara Keith:

  You're welcome.

• Amy Walter:

  You're welcome.