Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on how abortion rights could motivate voter turnout for Biden

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• Geoff Bennett:

  House Speaker Mike Johnson signals a vote on Ukraine aid will come next week, and the Biden campaign courts disaffected Republicans.

  It's time for a check-in with our Politics Monday team. That's Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR. It's good to see you both.

  So we just heard Governor Gretchen Whitmer talk about the Michigan Family Protection Act, which supports surrogacy and IVF and LGBTQ+ parents. We have seen obviously reproductive rights emerge as a major driver in this election season. But this is additional action by Democrats on issues beyond abortion.

  Amy, what kind of impact does this have in a swing state like Michigan?

• Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

  You know the challenge right now that the Biden team has politically is that the people who turned out for him in 2020, many of whom were inspired maybe not so much by Joe Biden, but voting against Donald Trump, they just are not as engaged in the election as Trump supporters are.

  And if the Biden campaign can give these voters, especially younger voters, a reason to show up and believe this election is important, even if they're not excited about him — I mean, in Michigan, for example, there was that big uncommitted vote that Amna talked about with the governor.

  So there is certainly reticence on the part of many of these voters to show up and vote affirmatively for Biden, but by putting either issues on the ballot, which we're seeing in states like Nevada and Arizona, or making sure that this is part of the conversation, it could help to motivate some of those voters to show up, even if they're not particularly excited about Biden.

  This is an issue that does give them an incentive to go to the polls.

• Geoff Bennett:

  What about that, Tam? Is this enough to bring out Democrats and independents, that Democrats can preserve that so-called blue wall? And we also learned today that abortion rights will be on the ballot in Florida in November.

• Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

  Right.

  So this bill is — in some ways, it's like a technical correction. Several of the items in it are technical corrections and not the kind of thing that seven months from now voters are going to be like, wow, Democrats in our state passed this thing, we are so happy, we are going to vote for Joe Biden.

  That is not the kind of spillover effect that I would expect to see. However, as the discussion about reproductive rights happens all over the country, as the state of Florida is likely seeing a more restrictive ban at the same time that there is now going to be a ballot measure on the ballot, this is going to be a conversation that is going to be very live all over the country.

  And, obviously, the Biden campaign is going to make sure that Democratic voters know all about what's going on all over the country. In terms of Florida, the Biden campaign six months ago, eight months ago, a year ago would say, oh, we're going to compete in Florida. They do not mention Florida anymore.

  The farthest they go is to say that they're still planning to compete in North Carolina. Florida was always a stretch. I don't know that adding a ballot measure is going to be enough to overcome real organizational challenges that Democrats have had on the ground in Florida for a generation.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Well, meantime, House Speaker Mike Johnson is raising expectations for a vote on Ukraine funding when the House returns next week, even at the risk of Johnson potentially losing his speakership, since Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has invoked that measure that would allow her to call for vote on his speakership, on his leadership.

  So here's what Johnson said to FOX in an interview yesterday about it.

• Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA):

  Marjorie is a friend. She's very frustrated about, for example, the last appropriations bills. Guess what? So am I. As we discussed, Trey, these are not the perfect pieces of legislation that you and I and Marjorie would draft if we had the ability to do it differently.

  But with the smallest margin in U.S. history, we're sometimes going to get legislation that we don't like. And the Democrats know that when we don't all stand together with our razor-thin majority, then they have a better negotiation position.

• Geoff Bennett:

  So, Amy, is that enough to mollify his right flank?

• Amy Walter:

  I don't know that some of these folks are mollifiable, if that's even a word.

  And the point is not that — about policy. This is really, I think, about the ability for many of these members just to show that they can do it. And Johnson doesn't have any margin, as he pointed out. He's got the smallest margin in history. There is a one-seat margin.

  Now, a call to vacate the chair, if indeed that comes to the floor with a one-seat margin, that is courting disaster, one. — this is not likely, but possibility that actually a Democrat wins the speakership. But more than that, if we thought that the McCarthy vote was drawn out or getting Johnson into that job was drawn out, just imagine how difficult this is going to be with one seat.

  What Johnson seems to be doing right now, though, is trying to mollify conservatives by saying, one, I'm going to put — maybe we will put legislation in here or put additional aspects into this legislation that deal with liquefied natural gas.

  Also, let's make this more of a loan. Let's use assets, Russian assets we have taken in this country, use those to pay for it. But again, I don't — we know, at the end of the day, he's going to need Democrats. This bill does not make it without Democrats.

  So, whether it's mollifying them or not, it's still going to pass because Democrats decide to go along.

• Geoff Bennett:

  And Speaker Johnson referred to those measures you mentioned as important innovations.

  Tam, House Republicans have blocked President Biden's request for additional Ukraine aid for nearly six months. How do you see this coming together?

• Tamara Keith:

  It's not clear yet exactly how it will come together.

  Johnson is — he has taken on this remarkably pragmatic tone, laying out the challenges that exist in divided government when you have a very narrow margin. It's not the kind of thing he would have said when he wasn't in leadership, but now he is in leadership.

  And I will say that he avoided a government shutdown. He has avoided a couple of other cliffs by innovating, really not actually changing the underlying numbers or changing the underlying thing that they ultimately agreed to, but by changing a deadline or sort of rebranding funding the government.

  And that appears to be potentially what he is doing again, but, as Amy says, in the end, he would be very lucky if a majority of Republicans supported Ukraine funding or a broader supplemental, national security supplemental. He would be very lucky if a majority of Republicans supported it. He's going to need Democrats in order for it to pass.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Well, in the time that remains, let's talk about the 2024 race, because President Biden fresh off that record-breaking fund-raiser in New York, his campaign released a digital ad we can put up now which really is making a direct appeal to Nikki Haley supporters.

  This is obviously a coalition of Republicans and moderates who were turned off by Donald Trump. Are there enough Republicans in the middle who are winnable by President Biden? Or are these folks really just Democrats, as the Trump campaign has said?

• Amy Walter:

  Yes, I think that when you look at the group of people that voted for Nikki Haley in the primaries, they probably fall into three categories, one, never going to ever, ever vote for Donald Trump, probably didn't vote for him in 2020.

  And then there's a group of, I really would like somebody other than Donald Trump, but I will probably end up voting for him. And then there's the question — and I was talking to people today trying to figure out how big is that group of people of those who, I voted for Donald Trump in 2020 and I don't want to vote for him again.

  I think the key for the Biden campaign isn't necessarily that they win them over, but even if those voters show up and skip the top of the ticket, vote third party, or maybe not go to the polls at all, that's a vote for Biden because it's a vote that Trump got last time.

• Geoff Bennett:

  How does the Biden campaign see it?

• Tamara Keith:

  Right.

  And I will go to the Michigan primary, where Nikki Haley got more than 25 percent of the vote. Now, some of those people probably were Democrats, but not all of them, and you saw similar numbers in every state. The Biden campaign is aiming for addition, rather than subtraction, or rather than keeping things where they are.

  As that ad points out, Trump has in his rhetoric, publicly, at least, said, if you wanted Nikki Haley, then you aren't — you're not MAGA, you're not me. And so the Biden campaign is targeting that ad very specifically to areas where Nikki Haley got a lot of votes.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Tamara Keith and Amy Walter, thanks, as always.

• Tamara Keith:

  You're welcome.

• Amy Walter:

  You're welcome.