How Arizona’s near-total abortion ban revival affects toss-up 2024 races

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• John Yang:

  The near total abortion ban that the Arizona Supreme Court revived this week dates back to when Arizona wasn't a state yet, when slavery was legal, and when only white men had the vote, many Republican officeholders and candidate scrambled to distance themselves from the law.

  It underscores some of the political consequences of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to strike down the constitutional right to seek an abortion and leave it up to the states to decide whether to regulate it. Barrett Marson is a Republican strategist based in Arizona. And before we get going, Mr. Marson, something we should make clear to the viewers. You're not working for any candidates on the ballot this fall.

  Barrett Marson, Republican strategist: No, I am not. And thanks a lot for having me on, John.

• John Yang:

  Thanks. In Arizona, it's a swing state in the presidential election. You got a toss-up Senate race, and you got a couple of congressional contests that are going to be very close. How is this what happened this week, the Supreme Court decision going to affect those races?

• Barrett Marson:

  Well, I think you said it all in that sentence there except for that was what was last week. This week now, I don't know if the Senate race is a toss-up anymore. I don't know. You know, I think last week, we were a lien Trumps state. And I think this week, we're a lien Biden state.

  I think Kari Lake is on the wrong end of this issue. And, in fact, you know, I think a lot of Republicans who have quite frankly championed this kind of thing for what two generations are finding themselves, at least in Arizona, on the wrong side of how voters feel about this issue.

• John Yang:

  Have the Democrats picked up on this? Are they pressing this?

• Barrett Marson:

  I mean, that is what they are doing. 24/7. And rightly so I mean, look, right now, you know, again, a week ago, I would have said the border and immigration and the economy and inflation, were absolutely not only the top two issues, but they were very much Republican issues.

  And now, I think abortion is the number one and prevailing issue. It is the issue that will take the oxygen out of the room for any other issue. So you will see abortion be front and center in every time Democrats open their mouths on the campaign stump, and Republicans right now just don't have an answer for that.

• John Yang:

  You mentioned Kari Lake, she's running for Senate this time, two years ago, when she was running for governor, she called this a great law. And you've also mentioned other candidates and officeholders, who have been championing this law or this idea and now have to deal with it, how should they deal with it? How can they deal with it?

• Barrett Marson:

  Well, look, it's been dogma in the Republican Party for, you know, again, two generations, three generations. So I think, frankly, just own it. You know, talk about why you are pro-life, talk about the benefits, talk about the need, maybe for more of a social safety net, but talk about the benefits of being pro-life, because there is no really running away. And they're, you know, otherwise, just like Kari Lake, you look like a massive flip flopper.

  And you know, two years ago, she called this the model for other states. And now she's talking about she's pro-choice. So, you know, I think you should just a Republican candidate should just own this. They've been wanting to do this for a couple generations. They've done it, celebrate it and embrace it.

• John Yang:

  To that point, you also mentioned this has been Republican dogma. They got it. They got what they wanted when they were when Roe was overturned. Is this sort of like the dog that caught the car? They don't know what to do with it now?

• Barrett Marson:

  Well, it is certainly an Arizona where the electorate is at least willing to have some sort of legal abortion, whether it is we will have an initiative on the ballot most likely, and that would allow abortion up to 24 weeks.

  And I think that will pass maybe now with 60 plus percent of the vote if especially if it is a choice between zero abortions, and maybe something a little bit too far to the left but better something that's legal than nothing.

• John Yang:

  Florida, of course, finds itself in a similar situation their Supreme Court cleared the way for a six-week band to take effect at the beginning of May. They've got are likely to have a constitutional ballot initiative on their ballot as well. Is it going to have the same effect there? Or do you think it's different?

• Barrett Marson:

  Well, you know, Florida is a, you know, has been trending Republican, for sure. But again, this ballot initiative has the chance, both in Arizona and Florida, to bring out so many young people, so many first time voters, and we don't know whether they will stick around, you know, come out for the abortion initiative, but stick around for Joe Biden and Ruben Gallego and, you know, and Senate candidates and House candidates down the ballot.

  Certainly they're going to come out for the abortion initiative, and it'll be up to the Democratic candidates up and down the ballot to convince them to stick around and vote for them as well.

• John Yang:

  Republican strategist Barrett Marson, thank you very much.

• Barrett Marson:

  Thank you.